Potential of future seismogenesis in Hebei Province (NE China) due to stress interactions between strong earthquakes |
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| Institution: | 1. Department of Water Resources and Environment, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510275, China;2. Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Water Security in Southern China of Guangdong High Education Institute, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510275, China;3. Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Urbanization and Geo-simulation, School of Geography and Planning, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510275, China;4. Department of Biological and Agricultural Engineering and Zachry Department of Civil Engineering, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX, USA;5. College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China;6. Department of Geography, University of Cincinnati, Cincinnati, OH 45221-0131, United States;1. Department of Electronics and Computer Engineering, Hanyang University, 133-791 Seoul, South Korea;2. Division of Computer Science and Engineering, Hanyang University, 133-791 Seoul, South Korea;1. Lanzhou Institute of Seismology, China Earthquake Administration, Lanzhou 730000, China;2. State Key Laboratory of Earthquake Dynamics, Institute of Geology, China Earthquake Administration, Beijing 100049, China;3. Earthquake Administration of Qinghai Province, Xining 810001, China |
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| Abstract: | Northeast China, a densely populated area, is affected by intense seismic activity, which includes large events that caused extensive disaster and tremendous loss of life. For contributing to the continuous efforts for seismic hazard assessment, the earthquake potential from the active faults near the cities of Zhangjiakou and Langfang in Hebei Province is examined. We estimate the effect of the coseismic stress changes of strong (M ? 5.0) earthquakes on the major regional active faults, and mapped Coulomb stress change onto these target faults. More importantly our calculations reveal that positive stress changes caused by the largest events of the 1976 Tangshan sequence make the Xiadian and part of Daxing fault, thus considered the most likely sites of the next strong earthquake in the study area. The accumulated static stress changes that reached a value of up to 0.4 bar onto these faults, were subsequently incorporated in earthquake probability estimates for the next 30 years. |
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| Keywords: | Coulomb stress changes Earthquake probabilities Seismic hazard assessment Hebei Province (China) |
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