Using stochastic population process models to predict the impact of climate change |
| |
| Institution: | 1. CNR IVALSA, Via Madonna del Piano 10, I-50019 Sesto Fiorentino, Italy;2. IDM Süd Tirol, Via Siemens 19, I- 39100 Bolzano, Italy;3. CRA ING, Via della Pascolare 16, I-00015 Monterotondo, Italy;1. Australian Rivers Institute, 170 Kessels Road, Griffith University, Nathan, Queensland, 4111, Australia;2. CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere Flagship, Dutton Park, Queensland, 4102, Australia;1. Escuela de Salud Pública, Fac. Medicina, Universidad de Chile, Chile;2. IIMAS-UNAM, Mexico;3. University of Torino & Collegio Carlo Alberto, Italy |
| |
| Abstract: | More than ten years ago a paper was published in which stochastic population process models were fitted to time series of two marine polychaete species in the western Wadden Sea, The Netherlands (Van der Meer et al., 2000). For the predator species, model fits pointed to a strong effect of average sea surface winter temperature on the population dynamics, and one-year ahead model forecasts correlated well with true observations (r = 0.90). During the last decade a pronounced warming of the area occurred. Average winter temperature increased with 0.9 °C. Here we show that despite the high goodness-of-fit whilst using the original dataset, predictive capability of the models for the recent warm period was poor. |
| |
| Keywords: | |
| 本文献已被 ScienceDirect 等数据库收录！ |
|
