>0.3 MeV高能电子注入辐射带槽区事件的分析与预报

本文利用低高度太阳同步轨道系列卫星NOAA/POES从1996年到2006年的>0.3 MeV高能电子观测数据,分析了>0.3 MeV高能电子注入辐射带槽区的特征,研究了注入槽区事件与行星际条件、太阳活动和地磁扰动之间的联系.研究表明>0.3 MeV高能电子注入辐射带槽区事件与磁暴的发生密切相关,注入事件的发生与太阳活动的强度有一定的相关性.在此研究的基础上,本文通过分析辐射带槽区>0.3 MeV高能电子通量和Dst指数的相关性,提出了利用Dst指数推算辐射带槽区>0.3 MeV高能电子通量的方法,继而给出了可行的辐射带槽区高能电子辐射环境的预警模式.

The analysis and forecast of the penetration of >0.3 MeV electrons to the slot region in radiation belt

Based on the observations of >0.3 MeV electrons from the polar orbit satellite NOAA/POES during 1996～2006, the characteristics of >0.3 MeV electrons penetrating into the slot region in radiation belt were studied. By comparing the property of high energy electrons' penetration to the interplanetary condition, solar activity and geomagnetic disturbance, it is found that >0.3 MeV electron penetration always takes place during magnetic storms. Also, the incidence of electron penetration has a correlation with solar activity cycle. In particular, analysis of the correlation between >0.3 MeV electron flux in the slot region and Dst index indicates that we can use Dst index to calculate the electron flux. In that case, we can establish a model to forecast the penetration of >0.3 MeV electrons to the slot region in radiation belt.