全过程沉降预测的新模型与方法

地面沉降是普通存在的一种环境灾害为此提出了一种新模型，它概括了泊松曲线模型与Verhulst模型，能准确预测全过程沉降量的变化规律。提出了将非线性回归与3次样条插值相结合求解新模型的思路与方法，突破了泊松曲线模型所用三段计算法的局限。实例分析结果表明：所提出的方法能准确地求得非线性模型的解；新模型及方法与Verhulst模型及方法相比，能使模型计算值与实测值之间的残差大幅度减小。新模型为岩土工程设计提供了新的科学依据。

New model and method of forecasting settlement during complete process of construction and operation

A settlement of surface is an environmental hazard. A new model was proposed to forecast exactly the change law of a settlement during the complete process of construction and operation. Either Poisson curve model or Verhulst model is a special case of the new model. A new concept and method are proposed to break through limitations of a three-piece algorithm used by Poisson curve model. It combines a nonlinear regression method and a cubic spline interpolation method. Solutions to the new model are obtained by the new method. An example is given and discussed. Results show that the new concept and method can give precise solutions of the model and that the resolve between calculated results from the new model and measured ones is reduced greatly compared with that from Verhulst model. The new model can provide geotechnical engineering design with new scientific basis.