| 西北干旱地区枯水径流分析和预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 李秀云,汤奇成. 西北干旱地区枯水径流分析和预测[J]. 冰川冻土, 1988, 0(1) |
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| 作者姓名： | 李秀云 汤奇成 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国科学院地理研究所 北京(李秀云)，中国科学院地理研究所 北京(汤奇成) |
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| 摘 要： | 该区枯水径流分析和预测可用自回归模型进行。从自相关系数及枯水径流形成的条件,可将该区分为五个类型区。在自相关系数高、多年变化小的地区应用灰色残差模型预测枯水径流量能保证一定精度而又较简便。
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| 关 键 词： | 自回归 t检验 残差 |
Analysis and Forecasting of Low Runoff in the Northwest |
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| Li Xiuyun Tang Qicheng. Analysis and Forecasting of Low Runoff in the Northwest[J]. Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology, 1988, 0(1) |
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| Authors: | Li Xiuyun Tang Qicheng |
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| Abstract: | Autoregressive model can be used to analyze and forcast the low runoff under natural conditions in the Northwest. The key stage in establishing the model is to decide the order and calculated the remaining errors.According to autoregressive coefficients and the physical geographic conditions of low runoff formation, the Northwest could be divided into five zones: Altai Mountain, Tianshan Mountain Pamir and Kunlun Mountain, the north slope and south slope of Qilian Mountain. The autoregressive coefficients among them are significantly different.For the zones with bigger autoregressive coefficients and small multiyear variability of low runoff, we applied grey system model to forecast the low runoff and got a satisfied results. |
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| Keywords: | autoregression t-detection remainder error |
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