新疆生态经济系统的能值分析及其可持续性评估

运用能值理论与方法，对新疆1991～1999年的净能值产出率、能值投入率、环境负荷率、能值-货币比、能值使用强度、电力能值使用量比、可持续发展指数、人均能值用量和人口承载力等9个指标及其变化趋势进行分析，并与其他国家和地区的有关指标进行比较研究。分析结果表明：(1)1991～1999年新疆的净能值产出率曲线为非匀速下降趋势，从1991年的23．6下降到1999年的11．7。尽管净能值产出率有所下降，但仍然大大高于l，这表明新疆向外界输出的能值高于区外对其投入的能值，是一个资源输出型的生态经济区域；(2)新疆的可持续发展指数曲线与净能值产出率变化趋势一致，为非匀速下降趋势，从1991年的262．0下降到1999年的64．1。这表明从199l～1999年新疆的资源被开发和利用的程度有所增加，经济有了一定程度的发展，但开发程度仍较低，经济上还处于极不发达的阶段；(3)环境负荷率的变化曲线呈上升趋势。环境负荷率上升的主要原因是新疆的进口资源及劳务的能值用量增大，尽管如此，由于环境负荷率较低，因此，新疆的经济发展还有较大的潜力。

Emergy Evaluation and Assessment of Sustainability on the Eco-Economic System of Xinjiang

In this paper, on the basis of emergy analysis, indices and ratios are calculated and analysed in the eco-economic system of Xinjiang from 1991 to 1999. The research results showed that: 1) the emergy yield ratio decreased from 23.6 in 1991 to 11.7 in 1999, however, the ratio in each year was more than 1, which indicates Xinjiang is an export-oriented eco-economic region with much more emergy exporting to the outsides; 2) the emergy-based sustainability index changed from 262 in 1991 to 64.1 in 1999, which indicates Xinjiang has made certain progress in resource utilization and economic development, but it is still a less-developed region; 3) the environmental loading ratios of Xinjiang increased from 0.09 in 1991 to 0.18 in 1999, which indicates the ratios are much less than the average level of the world, and there is still greater potential for further economic development; 4) the upper limits of population carrying capacity in Xinjiang is more than 100 million persons, which indicates it is rational to have immigrants for the development of Xinjiang in the future.