水资源控制下西北干旱区城市发展模式研究

本研究利用经典的IPAT模型,定量分析了水资源消费量与产业结构之间的关系,通过优化建模软件lingo10.0,获得在不同控水条件下,水资源消费量与产业结构之间的关系。在上述研究的基础上,以石羊河流域武威市为例,设置9种不同的发展情景,分析了在何种情景下最有利于减缓水资源消费需求。结果表明:在加速经济增长、合理调整产业结构、加强节水的强控水措施下,最有利于实现武威市经济与水资源消费稳步发展,此时武威市2015年的水资源消费量为148 384.10 m3,地区生产总值为3 584 787.01万元。

Developing Model of Cities in Northwest Arid Region of China under the Control of Water Resources: A case study of Wuwei

In this paper, we analyzed quantitatively the connection between the consumption of water resources and industrial structure in the different conditions of water controlling by using the IPAT model and optimized modeling software lingo10.0. Taking Wuwei in Shiyanghe River Basin as an example, it sets 9 developing scenarios and analyzed the best model of reducing the demand of water consumption. Results show that it would be best for Wuwei to achieve economy and water consumption developing steadily by accelerating economic growth, adjusting industrial structure rationally and strengthening the water conservation. The water consumption in 2015 would be 1.4838410×10 m9 and the GDP would be 3.58478701×1011 RMB.