新疆阿克苏地区城市自然灾害脆弱性评价研究

塔里木盆地是我国最大的半封闭型内陆盆地, 干旱、大风、沙尘暴、洪水以及地震、雪灾等自然灾害频繁.为了提高塔里木盆地城市应对自然灾害的能力, 以阿克苏地区为例, 在广泛借鉴国内外灾害脆弱性评价的指标体系与评价模型的基础上, 以多灾种复合情况为背景, 构建塔里木盆地自然灾害脆弱性评价指标体系, 运用模糊综合评价法进行脆弱性评价, 并对各指标进行对比分析.结果表明: 阿克苏市、新和县、阿瓦提县的高脆弱度值最高, 分别为0.48、0.36及0.40, 属于高脆弱度; 温宿县、沙雅县的中脆弱度值较高, 分别0.24和0.26, 属于中脆弱度; 库车县、拜城县、乌什县、柯坪县的低脆弱度值较高, 分别为0.48、0.45、0.36及0.35, 属于低脆弱度.根据各县市自然灾害脆弱性评价结果, 结合区域特点, 提出了防灾抗灾的对策建议, 对塔里木盆地城市降低脆弱性、减轻自然灾害影响有一定借鉴意义.

Study of the Natural Disaster Vulnerability Evaluation in Aksu Prefecture,Xinjiang

Tarim Basin is the China's largest semi-closed inland basin. The basin suffers from natural disasters frequently, such as drought, wind, dust storm, flood and earthquake.To study how to improve the ability against natural disasters in the basin, Aksu Prefecture was taken as an example. By extensive reference of the evaluation index systems and evaluation models of disaster vulnerability at home and abroad, on thebackground of multi-disasters, evaluation index systems about regional natural disaster vulnerability for the cities in the basin were established. Fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method was applied to evaluate the vulnerability of natural disaster. In this paper, various indexes were computed and contrastively analyzed.The result shows that Aksu City, Xinhe County and Awat County own the high level of vulnerability; Wensu County and Xayar County own the moderate level of vulnerability; Kuqa County, Baicheng County, Wushi CountyandKalpin County own the low level of vulnerability. In the meantime, combining regional characteristics, countermeasures and suggestions against the disasters are put forward,which are useful for reducing the vulnerability and mitigating the effectsof natural disasters in the basin.