物流业发展对产业结构优化的实证分析 ——基于空间面板杜宾模型

目前，我国正处于产业结构优化升级和实现经济发展方式转变的关键时期。物流业作为第三产业的重要组成部分，具有有效降低经济运行成本、提高运作效率和促进产业结构升级的作用。文章首先对省域产业结构合理化和产业结构高级化空间依赖性进行了检验。然后，基于我国1997―2010年30个省级面板数据，通过引入因变量空间滞后项和自变量空间滞后项，构建空间面板杜宾模型，从产业结构合理化和产业结构高级化2个方面分析物流业发展对产业结构优化的影响。研究结果表明：我国产业结构合理化和产业结构高级化存在着显著为正的空间溢出效应，东部、中部和西部地区存在着明显的空间差异；物流业的发展不仅能够显著促进当地产业结构合理化和产业结构高级化进程，而且对邻近地区产业结构优化具有正向的空间溢出效应。最后，文章有针对性地提出了政策建议。

Effects of the Development of Modern Logistics Industry on the Optimization of Industrial Structure Based on the Spatial Panel Durbin Model

At present, China is in a critical period of upgrading industrial structure and realizing the transformation of economic development patterns. As an important part of the tertiary industry, the logistics industry has a role of reducing the cost of economic operation effectively, improving operational efficiency and promoting the upgrade of industrial structure. In this paper the spatial dependency of rationalization of industrial structure and the optimization of industrial structure are tested, a spatial panel Durbin Model is built through introducing the spatial lag items of dependent variable and independent variable into the model. The impact of the development of logistics industry on the industrial structure optimization is analyzed from the aspects of rationalization of industrial structure and optimization of industrial structure, based on the thirty provinces panel data in China during 1997-2010. The results show that rationalization of industrial structure and optimization of industrial structure have significant positive spillover effect and there is an obvious difference among the eastern region, central region and western region of China. The development of modern logistics industry not only can significantly promote the process of the industrial structure optimization, but also promote the development of adjacent areas through the positive spillover effect. Finally, some relevant suggestions are put forward in this paper.