四川省水稻气候干旱灾害风险研究

水稻生育时期内水分亏缺, 是形成水稻气候干旱的首要条件. 利用四川省1960-2010年159个气象站逐日降水量、日平均气温资料和水稻生育时期资料, 以降水距平百分率、相对湿润度指数作为干旱指标, 分析四川省水稻分蘖期、拔节孕穗期和抽穗扬花期不同气候干旱等级发生概率, 构建水稻气候干旱灾害风险模型, 评估四川省水稻分蘖期、拔节孕穗期和抽穗扬花期以及整个生育时期的气候干旱风险. 结果表明:四川省水稻拔节孕穗期和抽穗扬花期气候干旱风险较高, 降水距平百分率和相对湿润度指数的风险区划结果并不完全相同, 但分布趋势相近. 水稻整个生育时期, 四川盆地和东北部部分地区干旱风险较高, 川南地区干旱风险相对较小.

A Study of Climate Drought Disaster Risk of Paddy in Sichuan Province

Water shortage in different growth stages is the first factor for paddy climate drought. By the data of daily precipitation, daily mean air temperature in different paddy growth stages from 159 weather stations in Sichuan Province from 1960 to 2010, the probability of different climate drought level are analyzed in the paddy tillering stage, jointing booting stage and heading and flowering stage by using the precipitation anomaly percentage and the relative moisture index as a drought index. Paddy climate drought disaster risk modes are constructed, then the climate drought risks are assessed in the paddy tillering stage, jointing booting stage, heading and flowering stage and the whole growth period in the province. The results show that: there are higher climate drought risks in paddy jointing booting stage and heading and flowering stage in the province;spatially, there is some difference between the risk zonings from precipitation anomaly percentage and from relative humidity index, but the risk distribution trends are similar. The higher risk areas are mainly in Sichuan Basin and northeastern part of Sichuan Province, and the risk in the south is smaller in the whole paddy growth stage.