资源评价的成功树法

成功树法是应用系统工程中的可靠性理论，将专家对成矿规律的认识系统工程化，改编为成功树的形式，通过计算成功树顶事件的成矿概率或成矿有利度，达到资源评价目的。文章详细介绍了成功树法的来源、原理、３种计算方法，具体说明了怎样建立综合铀矿成矿成功树，以及用它进行资源评价的步骤。由于本方法不受已知矿床数量、预测区面积大小的限制，适用于不同矿种、不同类型、不同比例尺的资源评价，具有良好的发展前景。

SUCCESS TREE METHOD OF RESOURCES EVALUATION

By applying the reliability theory in system engineering,the success tree method is usedto transfer the expert's recognition on metallogenetic regularities into the form of the successtree.The aim of resources evaluation is achieved by means of calculating the metallogeneticprobability or favourability of the top event of the success tree. This article introduces in detail,the source,principle of the success tree method and three kinds of calculation methods,expounds concretely how to establish the success tree of comprehensive uranium metallogenesis as well as the procedure from which the resources evaluation is performed. Because thismethod has no restrictions on the number of known deposits and calculated area,it is applicable to resources evaluation for different mineral species,types and scales and possesses goodprospects of development.