| 红河州地质灾害临界雨量及预报方法初探 |
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| 引用本文： | 周秀美,苗芸,程林.红河州地质灾害临界雨量及预报方法初探[J].云南地理环境研究,2012,24(3):37-42. |
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| 作者姓名： | 周秀美 苗芸 程林 |
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| 作者单位： | 红河州气象局,云南蒙自,661199 |
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| 基金项目： | 云南省气象局预报员专项项目资助 |
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| 摘 要： | 根据红河州国土局提供的地质灾害易发性分区资料,将全州134个乡镇按地质灾害易发程度分为极易发区、易发区和轻易发区,全州约90%的地区为易发区和极易发区,仅北部的小面积地区为轻易发区;对红河州1984～2010年地质灾害资料分析发现,90%以上的地质灾害发生在5～10月,与降雨关系密切,强降雨及连阴雨均可能诱发地质灾害;对其中183条地质灾害样本进行分析,得出各分区临界雨量及地质灾害统计预报方程,将地质灾害等级预报细化到乡镇。
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| 关 键 词： | 地质灾害易发性分区 临界雨量 统计预报方程 云南省红河州 |
RESEARCH ON CRITICAL PRECIPITATION AND FORECASTING METHODS OF GEOLOGICAL HAZARDS OF HONGHE PREFECTURE |
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| ZHOU Xiu-mei,MIAO Yun,CHENG Lin.RESEARCH ON CRITICAL PRECIPITATION AND FORECASTING METHODS OF GEOLOGICAL HAZARDS OF HONGHE PREFECTURE[J].Yunnan Geographic Environment Research,2012,24(3):37-42. |
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| Authors: | ZHOU Xiu-mei MIAO Yun CHENG Lin |
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| Institution: | ( Meteorological Bureau of Honghe prefecture, Mengzi 661199, Yunnan, China) |
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| Abstract: | According to geological disasters susceptibility zonation information provided by Land Bureau of Hong- he prefecture, 134 township is divided into three areas： extremely prone area、 prone area and light prone are- a. About 90% regions is apt to occur geological disasters and the southern and western regions is more serious. By analyzing disaster cases from 1984 to 2010, it is found that 90% geological disasters occurred from May to Octo- ber, which is similar to the rainfall distribution, heavy rain and continuous rain can probably lead to geological disasters. The critical precipitation is determined and the statistic forecasting equation is built of every area by using of 183 samples, and the 5 grades potential forecasting of geological hazards is refined to the township. |
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| Keywords: | regionalization based on geological hazards critical precipitation statistical forecasting equations Honghe Prefecture in Yunnan Province |
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