贵州省冬季雨凇灾害预测模型的初构

该研究利用1961—2015年贵州省逐日雨凇观测资料,NCEP/NCAR海平面气压场和500 h Pa高度场逐月再分析资料,以及NOAA ERSSTV4逐月海表温度资料,初步构建了贵州省冬季雨凇灾害预测模型。模型主要量化为以下指标:雨凇灾害偏强/弱时,对应500 h Pa位势高度异常场正/负(50~70°N、40~80°E)和负/正(20~40°N、60~100°E),对应海平面气压异常场正/负(45~65°N、40~80°E),对应前期秋季北大西洋关键区(25~35°N,60~40°W)的海表温度异常为负/正异常。且强雨凇年时,该模型的可信度更高。利用该模型,本研究展开了对2016年冬季雨凇强度的试报,试报结果为强度偏弱,与实况场吻合,表明该模型有一定的参考价值。

Preliminary Establishment of Climate Prediction Model on Glaze Disaster over Guizhou in Winter

Climate prediction model on glaze disaster over Guizhou in winter was established using the data of daily glaze, the monthly NOAA ERSSTV4 sea surface temperature and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data during 1961-2015, 500 hPa geopotential height and sea level pressure. Results showed that the glaze disaster was strong/weak when satisfied the condition that the 500hPa geopotential height anomaly field (50°N~70°N, 40°E~80°E) was positive/negative phase and the field (20°N~40°N, 60°E~100°E) was negative/positive phase, while the field (45°N~65°N, 40°E~80°E) of the sea level pressure anomaly was positive/negative phase. In addition, sea surface temperature anomaly in the key area (25°N~35°N, 60°W~40°W) over the North Atlantic Ocean during autumn was negative/positive phase, when the gaze disaster in winter over Guizhou was strong/weak. Additionally, the model in the year with strong glaze disaster was more reliable than that in weak year. The model predicated successfully the intensity of the glaze disaster in winter 2016, which indicated the referential value.