Potential future changes in the Indian summer monsoon due to greenhouse warming: analysis of mechanisms in a global time-slice experiment

In this study the potential impact of the anticipated increase in the greenhouse gas concentrations on different aspects of the Indian summer monsoon is investigated, focusing on the role of the mechanisms leading to these changes. Both changes in the mean aspects of the Indian summer monsoon and changes in its interannual variability are considered. This is done on the basis of a global time-slice experiment being performed with the ECHAM4 AGCM at a high horizontal resolution of T106. The experiment consists of two 30-year simulations, one representing the present-day climate (period: 1970–1999) and one representing the future climate (period: 2060–2089). The time-slice experiment predicts an intensification of the mean rainfall associated with the Indian summer monsoon due to the general warming, while the future changes in the large-scale flow indicate a weakening of the monsoon circulation in the upper troposphere and only little change in the lower troposphere. The intensification of the monsoon rainfall in the Indian region is related to an intensification of the atmospheric moisture transport into this region. The weakening of the monsoon flow is caused by a pronounced warming of the sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific and the associated alterations of the Walker circulation. A future increase of the temperature difference between the Indian Ocean and central India as well as a future reduction of the Eurasian snow cover in spring would, by themselves, lead to a strengthening of the monsoon flow in the future. These two mechanisms compensate for the weakening of the low-level monsoon flow induced by the warming of the tropical Pacific. The time-slice experiment also predicts a future increase of the interannual variability of both the rainfall associated with the Indian summer monsoon and of the large-scale flow. A major part of this increase is accounted for by enhanced interannual variability of the sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific.