The uncertainties of a Pd3–PGV onsite earthquake early warning system |
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| Institution: | 1. Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering, The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, Clear Water Bay, Kowloon, Hong Kong;2. Department of Geosciences, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan;3. Department of Earth Sciences, National Cheng Kung University, Tainan, Taiwan;4. Department of Civil Engineering and Engineering Mechanics, Columbia University, New York City, USA;1. Institute of Crustal Dynamics, CEA, Beijing 100085, China;2. Key Laboratory of Crustal Dynamics, Beijing 100085, China;1. CEA Key Laboratory of Earthquake Prediction (Institute of Earthquake Forecasting), China Earthquake Administration, 63 Fuxing Road, Haidian District, Beijing, 100036, China;2. Earthquake Administration of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, Urumqi, 830011, China;3. Key Laboratory of Petroleum Resources, Gansu Province/Key Laboratory of Petroleum Resources Research, Institute of Geology and Geophysics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, 382 West Donggang Road, Lanzhou, 730000, China;4. C&C Reservoirs, 13831 Northwest Free Way, Houston, TX, USA, 77040;1. Service de chirurgie vasculaire, CHU Morafeno, Tamatave, Madagascar;2. Service d’anesthésie-réanimation, CHU Morafeno, Tamatave, Madagascar;3. Service de rhumatologie, CHU Morafeno, Tamatave, Madagascar;4. Service de chirurgie générale et vasculaire, CHUJRA, Tananarive, Madagascar;1. Hakubi Center for Advanced Research, Kyoto, Japan (Dr Sakamoto);2. Center for Southeast Asian Studies, Kyoto, Japan (Drs Sakamoto, Okumiya, Fujisawa, Wada, Kimura, Ishimoto, Fukutomi, Sasiwongsaroj, Kato, and Matsubayashi);3. Department of Field Medicine, School of Public Health, Kyoto University, Kyoto, Japan (Drs Imai and Matsubayashi; Ms Chen);4. Research Institute for Humanity and Nature, Kyoto, Japan (Drs Sakamoto and Okumiya);5. Affiliated Hospital of Qinghai University, Qinghai, China (Drs Wang and Dai);6. Research Center for High Altitude Medicine, Qinghai University, Qinghai, China (Dr Ge) |
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| Abstract: | Earthquake early warning systems have been developed to help minimize the loss of life and other damages resulting from catastrophic earthquakes. In the past several decades, these systems have evolved to function using a variety of methodologies. This study introduces an onsite system developed from a correlation between the precursor measurement (Pd3) and the peak ground acceleration (PGV) from 780 historical earthquake events recorded in Taiwan, Japan and South California. The study analyzes and integrates the uncertainty of the onsite system, establishing the statistical relationship between the PGV forecast, the Pd3 precursor, and the exceedance probability (PE). A method is presented for forecasting the PGV by scaling the Pd3. Furthermore, this study also suggests a decision-making model to determine whether or not the early warning notification should be issued, based on factors such as the uncertainty of the early warning system, the magnitude of the precursor, and warning recipient characteristics. |
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