水化地震短临前兆标志体系的研究

应用层次性和整体性原理等新观点，从大量的水化观测资料中，提炼出水化前兆标志。该标志以强震和强余震为目标，从中期、短期和短临３个时间尺度上，对其发生的时间和地点进行跟踪预测。预测的标志有均值变化率、频次变化速率、频次累加曲线和从属函数等４类。讨论了提取４类标志以及判断时间和地点的方法，并详述了不同时间尺度的震情判断方案。对１９７６年唐山地震做了检验性预测，效果良好。

Study on Mark System of Short-term and Impending Seismohydrochemical Precursors

Based on layering and integrity theory, we analyzed large amount of hydrochemical observation data and found out the precursory mark. This mark is made for time and spatial prediction of strongearthquakes and strong aftershocks in medium-term, short-term and impending occurrence. The mean variation rate, frequency variation rate, frequency accumulation curve and subordinate function are the fourkinds of prediction marks. We discussed how to obtain the four kinds of marks and the judgement methodof time and place of earthquakes in this paper, and discussed the judgement method of seismic situation bydifferent time scales. The 1976 Thangshan earthquake (Ms7. 8) is used to test this prediction method, andthe result is promising.