Incorporating climate change into water resources planning for the town of Polokwane,South Africa |
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Authors: | James Cullis Ken Strzepek Mark Tadross Karim Sami Beyers Havenga Burgert Gildenhuys Joel Smith |
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Institution: | 1.Auercon (Formally Ninham Shand),Cape Town,South Africa;2.University of Colorado at Boulder,Boulder,USA;3.Climate Systems Analysis Group,University of Cape Town,Cape Town,South Africa;4.WSM Lesheika,Polokwane,South Africa;5.Department of Water Affairs and Forestry,Pretoria,South Africa;6.BC Gildenhys and Associates,Johannesburg,South Africa;7.Stratus Consulting,Boulder,USA |
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Abstract: | Incorporating climate change into water resource planning is crucial to ensuring sustainable growth and development. The aim
of this study was to investigate how the proposed steps to incorporating climate change into project planning developed by
USAID could be applied in practice using the town of Polokwane in northeastern South Africa as a case study. Two Regional
Circulation Models (RCMs) and statistical downscaling from a range of General Circulation Models (GCMs) were used to produce
a set of monthly climate scenarios for 2025 and 2050. These scenarios were used to estimate the impact on surface water runoff
in the Olifants River catchment and the Letaba River catchment, and groundwater recharge in the Sand River Aquifer. The impact
on the potential yields from the existing Flag Bashielo Dam and other proposed dams in the Olifants River catchment were determined
using the Water Resources Yield Model (WRYM). The results of the analysis were discussed at a regional stakeholders workshop.
The workshop participants concluded that the higher priority for now should be on water conservation and demand management
(WCDM) and to consider a phased approach to developing additional storage capacity. The results of this study show that the
six-stage process for incorporating climate change into resource planning can be applied in practice and that the potential
threat of climate change can give emphasis to existing win–win approaches such as WCDM and phased implementation that should
form part of any sustainable water resource planning approach. |
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