中亚干旱区咸海面积变化与人类活动及气候变化的关联研究

咸海是亚洲仅次于里海的第二大内陆咸水湖， 20世纪60年代以来湖泊面积急剧萎缩。基于1960 - 2018年咸海的面积数据、 CRU气温和降水数据以及咸海流域灌溉面积、 水库容量等资料， 定量分析了1960年以来咸海湖泊面积的变化情况， 并从气候变化与人类活动两方面探究了咸海面积变化的主要影响因素。结果表明： 1960 - 2018年咸海的面积由6.85×10⁴ km²持续萎缩至（8.32±0.19）×10³ km²， 共减少了（6.02±0.02）×10⁴ km²（约87.85%）， 其中1960 - 2009年面积萎缩了（5.94±0.02）×10⁴ km²（约86.77%）， 而在2009 - 2018年其面积萎缩速率明显放缓， 减少了740.04 km²（约8.17%）。统计结果显示， 1960年以来强烈的人类活动（主要表现为灌溉用水和水库储水量的持续增加）是导致咸海面积急剧萎缩的主要因素， 其对咸海面积变化的影响远大于气候变化。在中亚地区气候继续向暖湿变化的背景下， 咸海流域应尽快调整以农业灌溉为主的用水结构， 否则在上游冰川融水达到峰值后， 咸海可能面临干涸的危险。

The relationship between area variation of the Aral Sea in the arid Central Asia and human activities and climate change

Utilizing datasets of the Aral Sea area， global CRU meteorological data and the irrigation area and reservoir capacity， we quantitatively assessed the long-term area variation of the Aral Sea during the period of 1960 - 2018， and then investigated the dominant influence factors including climate change and human activities. It is revealed that area of the Aral Sea had shrunk dramatically from 6.85×10⁴ km² to （8.32±0.19）×10³ km² with a shrinkage of （6.02±0.02）×10⁴ km² （about 87.85%） from 1960 to 2018. The area of the Aral Sea had shrunk by （5.94±0.02）×10⁴ km² （about 86.77%） during the period of 1960 - 2009， while the shrinkage rate had slowed down obviously and the area had decreased by 740.04 km² （about 8.17%） during the period of 2009 - 2018. The results of this statistical analysis show that the enhanced human activities since 1960， especially the increase of irrigation water consumption and reservoir capacity， is the dominant factor rendering the rapid shrinkage of the Aral Sea. Hence， water consumption， especially for irrigation should be adjusted to adapt on-going warming in the Aral Sea basin as soon as possible.