Reproduction of the large-scale state of water and sea ice in the arctic ocean in 1948–2002: Part I. Numerical model

Calculations were performed using a model of the combined circulation of the Atlantic Ocean (from 20° S), the Arctic Ocean, and the Bering Sea with a resolution of 0.25° by latitude and longitude for 1958–2006. The results are compared with observational data and results obtained by other models. Model estimates were obtained for the evolution of the Atlantic water inflow into the Arctic basin through the Fram Strait and the Barents Sea. Increased transports of Atlantic water inflow into the Arctic basin were found for the first half of the 1990s and 2004–2006. The relation between Atlantic water transports into the Arctic basin and variations in the North Atlantic oscillation is shown. A positive trend of Atlantic water inflow into the Arctic basin through the Fram Strait (0.061 Sv per year) was revealed. The evolution of the freshwater-layer thickness in the Beaufort Circulation (BC) is considered. There are three periods of its increased values combined with the increased anticyclonic vorticity of BC currents: the 1960s, the 1980s, and from 1999 until now. The model estimate for a statistical mean timescale of the cycle of freshwater concentration and sink from the BC is 16 years, which is close to currently existing estimates. The evolution of anticyclonic vorticity of currents leads the variations in the freshwater-layer thickness of the BC by 1.75 years. Since the mid-1970s, there have been long positive trends of both the freshwater-layer thickness and anticyclonic vorticity of currents in the BC. In the same time period, there has been a satellite-registered negative trend in the ice area in the Arctic, which was reproduced by the model.