北太平洋海温与江淮流域汛期流量的关系研究

利用自然正交函数分解法，对北太平洋海温与江淮流域汛期流量的关系进行了研究。结果表明，赤道东人平洋（10°S-10°N、180°-80°W）和西北太平洋（35°—45°N、150°E-140°W及30°N、170°-140°W）的海温变化与江淮流域汛期流量关系密切。当赤道东太平洋海温升高时，江淮流域汛期流量减少，反之则增加。依据这两个关键区的典型场时间系数所建立的流域预报模型，试报效果较为理想，除汉口8月流量预报误差为-10．7％外，其他要素流量预报误差均在±5％左右。

Relationship between SST in North Pacific and the Flow Rate of Yangtze-Huaihe River Basin in Flood Season

The Empirical Orthogonal Function （EOF） method is utilized to study the relationship between SST in North Pacific and the flow rate of Yangtze-Huaihe River basin in flood season. The result shows that the variations of SST in equatorial eastern Pacific （10°S--10°N, 180°--80°W） and northwest Pacific （35°--45°N, 150°E--140°W and 30°N, 170°--140°W） are closely related to the flow rate of Yangtze-Huaihe River basin in flood season. In flood season, the SST in equatorial eastern Pacific increases with the decrease of the flow rate of Yangtze-Huaihe River baisn, vice versa. Based on the time factor of typical fields in these two essential areas, the drainage area forecast model is built up and it has good testing effect. Except the -10.7% error of Hankou flow rate in August, the errors of the other factors are all about ±5%.