近30年来中国旅游业经济影响力研究

采用中国1978-2006年旅游统计面板数据,基于灰色关联度模型分析中国旅游业与三次产业的关联度,发现其与第一产业的关联度最大,与第三、二产业的关联度较小;运用旅游收入依存度、旅游需求收入弹性、旅游就业容量等指标,测算中国旅游业对国民经济的拉动效果,发现旅游业对国民经济的贡献和拉动作用不断增强,但仍不够突出。建议从调整产业结构、政策扶持等方面进一步提升中国旅游业的经济影响力。

Research on the Econormic Impact of Tourism in China for Recent 30 Years

The economic impact of tourism is always one of the objects of the tourism influence research.In this paper,the panel data from 1978 to 2006 in China was adopted,and the correlative degree between tourism and the first,second and tertiary industry was analyzed according to the grey correlation model.The result showed that the tourism industry has a closer correlation with the first industry than the tertiary industry and the second industry.Then three indexes of tourism dependence degree,flexibility of tourism demand-income and tourism employment capacity were used to measure and analyze the national economic effects by tourism in China.The result indicates that the tourism industry has made great contribution to the Chinese economy,but still is not enough outstanding.Then,some suggestions including the industrial structure adjustment,the policy supporting were put forward to promote the tourism economic impact in China.