基于熵值-突变级数法的环渤海地区海洋生态环境承载力评价及障碍因子诊断

随着对海洋开发力度的不断加大,海洋生态环境问题日益突出,已成为中国海洋可持续发展的制约因素。作为衡量海洋可持续发展的主要手段之一,海洋生态环境承载力的定量化评价是必不可少的重要环节。针对海洋生态环境承载力的突变特性,基于熵值-突变级数法,从压力和承压两方面构建海洋生态环境承载力评价指标体系,结合障碍因子诊断模型,考量环渤海地区4个省市2006-2014年的海洋生态环境承载力的空间差异和时序特征,剖析影响承载力发展水平的主要障碍因子。研究表明:环渤海地区2006-2014年海洋生态环境承载能力整体较差,承载力水平呈下降趋势;2014年海洋生态环境承载强度分为两类,山东和天津为较弱承载力水平,河北和辽宁为弱承载力水平;生态弹性小、环境污染重、生态资源匮乏已成为制约环渤海海洋生态环境承载力发展水平的普遍问题。

Evaluation of marine ecological environment carrying capacity and obstacle diagnosis for the Bohai Sea Ring Area of China based onentropy and catastrophe progression method

Along with the further utilization of marine resources, the marine economy has in turn become one of the fastest economy growing sectors in China. However, the rapid marine economic development of China has created immense pressures and has led to the continued degradation of ocean and coastal ecosystems. As a result, there has been a major factor restricting the sustainable development of China''s ocean and coasts. As one of the main means to evaluate the sustainable development of oceans, quantitative research of the eco -environmental carring capacity is essential. According to the catastrophic characteristics of the marine ecological environmental carrying capacity, we selected the Bohai Sea Ring Area as the research object. Based on the entropy and catastrophe progression methods, we built an index system to evaluate the marine ecological environmental carrying capacity, in which pressure and pressure -bearing indexs are included. Usingobstacle degree models, we analyzed the temporal pattern of the marine ecological environmental carrying capacity and the obstacle factors frorm 2006 to 2014. Results showed that the bearing capacity between marine ecological environment system and marine social economy system was very weak, and the capacity degree had a decreasing trend. In 2014, Shandong andTianjin belonged to the weak-bearing capacity level, and Hebei and Liaoning was the level of low-bearing capacity. Ecologial elasticity,environmental pollution and ecological resources have become a common problem that restricts the development of the carrying capacity of the marine ecological environment in the Bohai Ring Area.