基于SWAN和LAPS产品的人影作业参数自动估算方法研究

利用SWAN 的雷达三维拼图和LAPS的特征层数据，通过自动化处理，进行人影作业临近预警和目标云识别，并计算用弹量、距离目标云最近的作业点及其发射方位角和距离，给出作业高度参考，最后生成人工增雨和防雹的作业技术参数产品。通过与实际作业情况比较发现，人工增雨防雹作业技术参数产品可提前60 ～30 min发出预警，提前30 ～0min计算出作业技术参数；预警报给出的作业站点基本都在目标云移动路径上，作业技术参数与实况基本相符；火箭弹用量误差在鄂西山区为0% ～5.6% ，鄂东孝感、黄冈等地误差25 % ～55 .5% 。运用该方法指导人工增雨和防雹作业，能够实现作业决策自动化和定量化，取得较好效果，对市县人影作业有一定指导意义。

Study on methods for estimating automatically technique parameters of weather modification based on products of SWAN and LAPS

By using radar 3-D mosaic products of SWAN (the severe weather automatic nowcast system) and feature level data of LAPS (the local analysis and prediction system), technique parameters of weather modification are estimated automatically. The nowcasting of weather modification work is done and target clouds are identified. The ammunition amount, the rocket azimuth, the nearest rocket station away from the target cloud and their distance are estimated, and reference values of the seeding height are offered. The operation technique parameter products of rain enhance and hail suppression are made. Compared with actual operation information, it is found that the nowcasting can be made 30 -60 minutes in advance and the operation technique parameters are estimated 0-30 minutes in advance, the operation stations being forecasted are basically in the path of the target cloud moving, the technique parameters and actual information are basically consistent, the error of ammunition amount is about 0-5.6% in the western and 25 %-55 .5% in the eastern Hubei province. The application results show that this method can be used to guide artificial rain enhancement and hail suppression having automatic and quantitative operating decision-making, achieving good effects, and getting some practical significance for weather modification of grass roots.