SOLAR ACTIVITY AS A RESULT OF TWO-WAVE MAGNETIC FLUX GENERATION

Solar activity has been studied by using the time series of the yearly mean Wolf sunspot numbers. It was shown that the long-term variation of solar activity could be interpreted both as a beat between the two wave magnetic flux with 21.5-yr and 19.3-yr periods and the epochs of low solar activity after the phase failure. This magnetic flux is likely to be generated by the torsional oscillations of the transition layer located at the bottom of the Sun's convection zone.The periodicities of solar cycles obtained allow us to predict the Sun's activity in the 21st century with high probability. In particular, cycle 23 is predicted to start in 1999 and its maximum to occur between mid-2005 and mid-2006, the Wolf number being in the interval 50–65.