非对称的非绝热加热对热带气旋移动影响的数值研究

采用中尺度数值模式（MM4），以9414号台风为个例，应用卫星资料，引入非对称的非绝热加热，讨论其对9414号台风移动的影响。计算结果表明，引入与实况吻合的非对称非绝热加热分布后，该台风的路径预报和降水预报有明显改进，若同时考虑台风范围初始水汽场的非对称分布，这种改进作用尤为明显。从业务应用考虑，还构造了几种典型的螺旋状结构的非绝热加热计算方案引入模式的热力过程中，结果表明:不同螺旋状结构的加热分布对台风的移动有不同的影响，当选择与实况云系分布相近的螺旋状结构时，也可提高台风路径预报正确率，可应用于业务模式。

Numerical Study on the Effect of Asymmetric Diabatic Heating on Tropical Cyclone Motion

Taking typhoon 9414 as an example, the effect of asymmetric diabatic heating on tropical cyclone motion is analysed using the mesoscale model (MM4). The calculated results show that the typhoon track prediction and precipitation forecast are improved obviously considering the asymmetric diabatic heating. If the initial asymmetric moisture field for the typhoon area is also included, the improvement will be more obviously. In order to put in operation, the diabatic heating calculating scheme of several typical spiral structures is constructed and led into the thermodynamic process of the model. The results show that when the spiral structure which is similar to the real distribution of cloud system is selected ,the accuracy of typhoon track prediction could be improved.