Climate volatility and poverty vulnerability in Tanzania |
| |
Authors: | Syud Amer Ahmed Noah S Diffenbaugh Thomas W Hertel David B Lobell Navin Ramankutty Ana R Rios Pedram Rowhani |
| |
Institution: | a Development Research Group, Mail Stop # MC3-300, World Bank, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC, USA;b Department of Environmental Earth System Science, Stanford University, CA, USA;c Woods Institute for the Environment, Stanford University, CA, USA;d Center for Global Trade Analysis, Purdue University, IN, USA;e Purdue Climate Change Research Center, Purdue University, IN, USA;f Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University, IN, USA;g Program on Food Security and the Environment, Stanford University, CA, USA;h Department of Geography and Earth System Science, McGill University, QC, Canada;i Sustainable Energy and Climate Change Unit, Inter-American Development Bank, Washington, DC, USA |
| |
Abstract: | Climate volatility could change in the future, with important implications for agricultural productivity. For Tanzania, where food production and prices are sensitive to climate, changes in climate volatility could have severe implications for poverty. This study uses climate model projections, statistical crop models, and general equilibrium economic simulations to determine how the vulnerability of Tanzania's population to impoverishment by climate variability could change between the late 20th Century and the early 21st Century. Under current climate volatility, there is potential for a range of possible poverty outcomes, although in the most extreme of circumstances, poverty could increase by as many as 650,000 people due to an extreme interannual decline in grain yield. However, scenarios of future climate from multiple climate models indicate no consensus on future changes in temperature or rainfall volatility, so that either an increase or decrease is plausible. Scenarios with the largest increases in climate volatility are projected to render Tanzanians increasingly vulnerable to poverty through impacts on staple grains production in agriculture, with as many as 90,000 additional people entering poverty on average. Under the scenario where precipitation volatility decreases, poverty vulnerability decreases, highlighting the possibility of climate changes that oppose the ensemble mean, leading to poverty impacts of opposite sign. The results suggest that evaluating potential changes in volatility and not just the mean climate state may be important for analyzing the poverty implications of climate change. |
| |
Keywords: | Climate Volatility Poverty Vulnerability Tanzania GCM |
本文献已被 ScienceDirect 等数据库收录! |
|