Evaluation and validation of mascon recovery using GRACE KBRR data with independent mass flux estimates in the Mississippi Basin

The direct recovery of surface mass anomalies using GRACE KBRR data processed in regional solutions provides mass variation estimates with 10-day temporal resolution. The approach undertaken herein uses a tailored orbit estimation strategy based solely on the KBRR data and directly estimates mass anomalies from the GRACE data. We introduce a set of temporal and spatial correlation constraints to enable high resolution mass flux estimates. The Mississippi Basin, with its well understood surface hydrological modelling available from the Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS), which uses advanced land surface modeling and data assimilation techniques, and a wealth of groundwater data, provides an opportunity to quantitatively compare GRACE estimates of the mass flux in the entire hydrological column with those available from independent and reliable sources. Evaluating GRACE’s performance is dependent on the accuracy ascribed to the hydrological information, which in and of itself is a complex challenge (Rodell in Hydrogeol J, doi:, 2007). Nevertheless, the Mississippi Basin is one of the few regions having a large hydrological signal that can support a meaningful GRACE comparison on the spatial scale resolved by GRACE. The isolation of the hydrological signal is dependent on the adequacy of the forward mass flux modeling for tides and atmospheric pressure variations. While these models have non-uniform global performance they are excellent in the Mississippi Basin. Through comparisons with the independent hydrology, we evaluate the effect on the solution of changing correlation times and distances in the constraints, altering the parameter recovery for areas external to the Mississippi Basin, and changing the relative strength of the constraints with respect to the KBRR data. The accuracy and stability of the mascon solutions are thereby assessed, especially with regard to the constraints used to stabilize the solution. We show that the mass anomalies, as represented by surface layer of water within regional cells have accuracy estimates of ±2–3 cm on par with the best hydrological estimates and consistent with our accuracy estimates for GRACE mass anomaly estimates. These solutions are shown to be very stable, especially for the recovery of semi-annual and longer period trends, where for example, the phase agreement for the dominant annual signal agrees at the 10-day level of resolution provided by GRACE. This validation confirms that mascons provide critical environmental data records for a wide range of applications including monitoring ground water mass changes.