辽宁参考作物腾发量变化特征及成因分析

利用1961-2020年辽宁地区62个国家级气象观测站生长季的逐日气象观测数据，采用Penman-Monteith公式计算了辽宁地区参考作物腾发量（ET0），利用ArcGIS的克里格插值法、M-K检验分析了辽宁地区生长季ET0的时空分布特征，对影响ET0变化的成因进行了分析。结果表明，近60年辽宁地区生长季参考作物腾发量呈现由西北向东南递减的变化趋势；ET0在1961-2010年呈下降趋势，2011-2020年呈升高趋势，生长季多年平均ET0变化趋势表现为波动下降趋势；生长季内ET0对相对湿度的响应最为敏感，为负效应。ET0对风速和温度变化的响应敏感性相对较小，为正效应。湿度的敏感系数绝对值明显高于风速和温度，7月份达到峰值；多年相对变化率绝对值最大的是风速，其次是温度和相对湿度；三个气象要素对ET0贡献最大的是风速，温度和湿度对ET0的正贡献不及风速的负贡献，综合敏感性和贡献两方面因素分析，风速的变化趋势为ET0呈下降趋势的主导因子。

Change?characteristics?and?cause?analysis?of?reference?crop?evapotranspiration?during?growing?season?in?Liaoning?province

Using daily meteorological observation data from 62 national meteorological observation stations in Liaoning from 1961 to 2020, Penman?Monteith was used to calculate the reference crop evapotranspiration (ET0) in Liaoning, and the kriging interpolation method and M-K test analysis of ArcGIS were used. The spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of ET0 in the growing season in the Liaoning area are analyzed, and the causes that affect ET0 changes are analyzed. The results showed that the ET0 during the growing season in Liaoning in the past 60 years showed a spatial variation characteristic of increasing from east to west. ET0 showed a downward trend from 1961 to 2010 and an upward trend from 2011 to 2020. In terms of the sensitivity of ET0 to relative humidity, temperature, and wind speed, ET0 is significantly positively correlated with wind speed and average temperature and significantly negatively correlated with relative humidity. ET0 is the most sensitive to relative humidity, and the sensitivity coefficient shows a decreasing trend year by year, followed by average temperature and relative humidity, and the latter two show an increasing trend. By calculating the contribution amount, the result shows that the wind speed has the largest contribution rate, and the total contribution of the three meteorological factors to ET0 is -2.96%. The comprehensive sensitivity and contribution rate are analyzed in two aspects, and the change trend of wind speed is the dominant trend of the ET0 decline factor.