新疆塔城地区暴雨时空变化特征及其影响因子分析

摘要：利用1960—2022年新疆塔城区域9个国家气象观测站逐日观测数据、国家气候中心大气环流和海温指数，分析塔城区域暴雨事件的时空变化特征及其影响因子。结果表明：近63 a塔城区域年平均暴雨事件发生频数为1.98站日数，西北部最多，中部最少；各站暴雨强度相差不大，平均强度为30.78 mm?d-1；塔城区域暴雨频数和暴雨量均呈增多趋势。暴雨事件主要集中在5—7月，7月最多。暴雨事件年代际变化阶段性特征明显，20世纪60年代至80年代持续偏少，90年代开始转为增多趋势并在21世纪10年代达到峰值。西太平洋副热带高压面积、强度和北界位置指数和亚洲（北半球）极涡面积（强度）的变化对暴雨事件有重要影响，ENSO（厄尔尼诺-南方涛动）冷（暖）事件与塔城区域暴雨的少（多）有较好地对应关系。

Spatial-temporal characteristics of rainstorm and its influencing factors in Tacheng Prefecture, Xinjiang

Using the daily observation data of 9 national meteorological observatories in Tacheng Prefecture of Xinjiang and the atmospheric circulation and sea surface temperature index of National Climate Center from 1960 to 2022, the temporal and spatial distribution of rainstorm in Tacheng Prefecture and its relationship with atmospheric circulation and sea surface temperature index were analyzed. The results showed that: There occurre 125 times rainstorm events in Tacheng Prefecture in the past 63 years, with the annual average frequency was 1.98. There was the most in the northwest region of Tacheng, accounting for 57.6% of the total, the least in middle eastern region. The rainstorm intensity of each station has little difference, and the average intensity of rainstorm was 30.78 mm. The frequency of rainstorm and rainstorm rainfall were increasing insignificantly in Tacheng Prefecture. The rainstorm events occurred mainly from May to July, the highest frequency occurring in July. There were different stage on the inter-decadal changes of rainstorm events in Tacheng Prefecture, which relatively less periods from 1960s to 1980s, began to increase in the1990s and peaked in the 2010s. Western Pacific subtropical high index and Asian (Northern Hemisphere) polar vortex index have important impact on rainstorm events. ENSO (El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation) events have a good corresponding relationship with the frequency of rainstorm in Tacheng Prefecture.