海南岛逐日太阳总辐射长期演变特征与关联因子

为了解海南岛太阳辐射资源的时空变化规律及变化原因，以海口（1961―2013 年）和三亚（1993―2013年）2 个气象站点长时间序列逐日太阳总辐射、日照时数、气温等观测资料为基础，利用气候倾向率、Mann-Kendall突变检验方法分析了全年、雨季、旱季日均太阳总辐射的长期演变特征，利用多重线性回归分析了辐射变化的主要关联气象因素。结果表明：1961―2013 年期间海口全年、雨季、旱季日均太阳总辐射气候倾向率分别为0.021、0.004、0.038 MJ/m²，1993―2013 年三亚全年、雨季、旱季日均太阳总辐射气候倾向率分别为-0.68、-0.658、-0.714MJ/m²。海口日均太阳总辐射变化呈波动趋势，全年、雨季日均太阳总辐射显著的“变暗期”分别出现在1975―1992、1975―1990 年；海口旱季日均太阳总辐射呈先降后升的趋势，1967―2003 年为下降期，2003 年之后呈现上升趋势，显著的“变暗期”为1995、1988―1989 年。1993 年以来，三亚全年、雨季、旱季日均太阳总辐射变化都呈下降趋势，显著的“变暗期”分别出现在1999―2013（全年）、2000―2003 和2009―2011 年（雨季）、1996―2001 和2004―2013 年（旱季），突变年份分别为1997、1995、1995 年。三亚站点太阳辐射资源较海口站点丰富；日照时数与海口全年、雨季、旱季和三亚全年、雨季日均太阳总辐射变化关联度最强，而日平均气温则与三亚旱季日均总辐射变化关联度最强。

Long-term Variation of Daily Global Solar Radiation and Influencing Factors in the Hainan Island

In order to investigate the variation of global solar radiation (Rs) and its cause in Hainan Island, long-term daily global solar radiation and routinely meteorological data such as daily sunshine hours, maximum and minimum temperatures at Haikou and Sanya stations were used. Climate tendency rate and Mann-Kendall test were used to analyze the annual, rainy season and dry season variations of daily Rs. Multiple linear regression was implemented to analyze the meteorological factors that influencing the variations of daily Rs. The results indicated that the climate tendency rate was 0.021、0.004、0.038 MJ/m² for daily Rs of full year, rainy season and dry season at Haikou during 1961-2013, respectively. While the climate tendency rate was -0.68, -0.658, -0.714 MJ/m² for daily Rs of full year, rainy season and dry season at Sanya during 1993-2013, respectively. The variation of daily Rs presented a fluctuation trend. The “dimming” appeared in 1975-1992, 1975-1990 for Rs of full year and rainy season at Haikou, respectively. Whereas the daily Rs for dry season decreased first and then increased, the “dimming” was in 1967-2003, and the “brightness” was after 2003. And the significant “dimming” was 1995 and 1988-1989.. The daily Rs for full year, rainy season and dry season at Sanya has presented a decline trend since 1993. The obvious “dimming” was in 1999-2013, 2000-2003 and 2009-2011, 1996-2001 and 2004-2013, respectively. The jump year were 1997, 1995 and 1995, respectively. In general, the Rs resources of Sanya were more abundant than that of Haikou. Sunshine duration was the mainly cause of daily Rs variations at Haikou and the Rs for full year, rainy season of Sanya. However, the daily average temperature was the main reason for daily Rs variation of dry season at Sanya.