"凤凰"台风模拟对陆面方案敏感性的分析

为研究台风模拟对不同陆面过程方案的敏感性,本文以0808号登陆台风"凤凰"为例,采用中尺度数值模式WRFv3及NCEP同化资料,进行了48 h的数值研究。结果表明,每一陆面方案与大气模式耦合模拟时台风中心位置及台风最大风速都呈现出该耦合系统独特的模拟特征,如与观测台风中心位置相比,NOAH方案模拟移动路径平均偏差最小,PX模拟偏差最大,NOAH-PX两方案差异可达NOAH方案模拟移动路径平均偏差的40%,可见台风模拟可因陆面方案的不同而呈现系统性的差异,且台风模拟对陆面方案的选择是敏感的;不同陆面方案通过模拟地表通量的差异导致温压场差异,并进一步影响模拟台风路径及台风强度。这些结果都表明了在台风的模式预报中,选择适当陆面方案的重要性。

Sensitivity of simulated Typhoon Phoenix to different land surface schemes

The Weather Research and Forecasting model version 3 (WRFv3) is used to analyze the sensitivity of simulated Typhoon Phoenix to different land surface schemes for a simulation period of 48 h. The results show that the typhoon simulation can show systematic differences caused by different land surface schemes, and the typhoon simulation is sensitive to the choice of land surface schemes. Different land surface schemes lead to differences in temperature and pressure fields by simulating the differences in surface fluxes, which further affects the simulated typhoon tracks and typhoon intensities. These results demonstrate the importance of choosing a proper land surface scheme in the model for typhoon forecasts.