强降雨作用下边(滑)坡稳定性分析及预警技术研究

以四川汉源二蛮山滑坡为例,根据现场滑坡情况勘查及室内试验确定土体参数;选择内置VBA为开发工具,开发基于ArcGIS的边（滑）坡稳定性分析插件,并据此得出研究区域危险区划评价图.研究结果表明,特殊地形条件、震后地质构造、连续强降雨以及坡体非饱和渗流等,使孔隙水压力增加和土基质吸力迅速减少,导致坡体滑移面处土的抗剪强度降低而发生滑坡;基于ArcGIS软件得出研究区域危险区划评价图,与滑坡的实际情况具有较高吻合度.研究成果为深入分析强降雨对边（滑）坡影响及边（滑）坡预警提供了新的途径.

STUDY ON TECHNOLOGY OF SLOPE/LANDSLIDE STABILITY ANALYSIS AND EARLY WARNING UNDER HEAVY RAINFALL

Erman mountain landslide of Hart Yuan County as the example, according to the exploration of landslide site conditions and indoor test of soil parameters; Choosing a built-in VBA for development tool to develop the side （slip） slope stability analysis plug-in based on ArcGIS, which makes the study regional risk zoning assessment diagram. Results show that the special topographical condition, geological structure after the earthquake, continuous heavy rains filled water load, slope unsaturated seepage flow, increasing the pore water pressure and rapidly reducing the soil matrix suction, leads to the shear strength decreased of the slope slip plane in the soil and finally landslides. Risk zoning evaluation chart of research area based on ArcGIS and the actual situation of slide have goodness of fit. Research result provides a new way for further analyzing the effect on side slope （slip） and warning under heavy rainfall condition.