鄱阳湖生态经济区气候变化事实与预估

利用1961--2010年江西省26个气象站逐日气温和降水资料，研究分析鄱阳湖生态经济区历史气候变化事实；基于“中国地区气候变化预估数据集”（Version3．0）2014--2100年数据，预估未来不同RCP情景下区域气温和降水变化。结果表明，鄱阳湖生态经济区气温呈现显著上升趋势，升温趋势高于江西全省；降水强度呈增强趋势。未来气温依然呈现为上升趋势，如果从现在开始及时有效地采取应对措施，气温的上升趋势将在2040年后得到缓解。如果长时间存在高能源需求及高温室气体排放，则未来降水年际变化更大，极端降水事件发生将更为频繁。

Facts and predictions of climate change in Poyang Lake Eco-economic Zone

The 1961-2010 daily temperature and precipitation data of the 26 weather stations around Poyang Lake Ecological Economic Zone are employed to analyze the facts of climate change in Poyang Eco-economic Zone. Based on the 2014-2100 data from ＂Chinese Climate Change Projection dataset, Version 3.0＂, the future regional temperature and precipitation variations are estimated under different RCP （Representative Concentration Pathways） scenarios in Poyang Lake Eco-economic Zone. The conclusions are： （1） The historical temperature in Poyang Eco-economic Zone presents significant ascendant trend, the ascendant trend is more obvious than that in the whole province. And the historical precipitation intensity in Poyang Eco-economic Zone presents significant enhancement; （2） Future temperature will still present an upward trend; （3） The ascendant trend of temperature will slow down after 2040 if the effective measures would be taken from now on; （4） If high energy demand and high greenhouse gas emission exist for a longtime, the interannual variation of future precipitation will be more evident, and extreme precipitation event will become more frequent.