供给主体视角下红树林碳汇项目全生命周期风险测度与评价研究——以湛江红树林造林项目为例

发展海洋碳汇对于建设人与自然和谐共生的美好世界具有重要意义，红树林作为海洋碳汇的重要来源，拥有强大的固碳和储碳能力，具有较高的生态价值和经济价值，因此，加快开发红树林碳汇是应对气候变化的重要战略选择。本文基于三角模糊数和结构方程构建红树林碳汇项目风险测度模型，选取湛江红树林造林项目这一我国的代表性项目，采用净现值方法和肯定当量法对其进行实证对比分析，测度风险因素对项目价值及其投资决策的影响，从而助力红树林碳汇的高质量发展。结果表明：（1）红树林碳汇项目的开发存在一定的风险，各阶段风险按照影响由高到低，依次为核查备案阶段、决策阶段、施工阶段、运营维护阶段和设计阶段，核查备案阶段的技术风险、决策阶段的政策风险、施工阶段的市场风险、运营维护阶段的市场风险和设计阶段的人类行为风险是各阶段中影响较大的风险种类；（2）风险的发生会使红树林碳汇项目的价值降低，相比传统净现值法，肯定当量法更符合红树林碳汇项目的开发和运行情况。

Study on the risk measurement and evaluation of the whole life cycle of mangrove carbon sink project from the perspective of the supply subject: Take the Zhanjiang mangrove afforestation project as an example

Accelerating the development of marine carbon sink for the construction of the harmonious development of human and nature beautiful world is of great significance. Mangrove as an important source of marine carbon sink, because of its strong carbon sequestration and carbon storage capacity, has high ecological value and economic value. Speeding up the development of mangrove carbon sink is an important strategic choice for addressing climate change. Based on the triangular fuzzy number and structural equation, this paper constructs the risk measurement model of the mangrove carbon sink project, selects Zhanjiang mangrove afforestation project as a representative project in China, and uses the net present value method and the positive equivalent method to conduct empirical comparative analysis to measure the impact of risk factors on project value and investment decision-making, so as to help the high-quality development of the mangrove carbon sink. The results show that: (1) There are certain risks in the development of mangrove carbon sink projects. The risks in each stage, from high to low, are verification and filing stage, decision-making stage, construction stage, operation and maintenance stage and design stage. The technical risk at the verification and filing stage, the policy risk at the decision-making stage, the market risk at the construction stage, the market risk at the operation and maintenance stage and the human behavior risk at the design stage are the types of risks with great influence in each stage. (2) The occurrence of risks will reduce the values of mangrove carbon sink projects. Compared with the traditional net present value method, the positive equivalent method is more consistent with the development and operation of mangrove carbon sink projects.