陆海统筹背景下胶州湾陆海系统耦合协调发展评价研究

海岸带是陆海协调发展的核心区域,进行陆海系统耦合协调发展评价对推动陆海统筹战略的实施至关重要。本文通过构建陆海耦合协调发展评价指标体系,对胶州湾地区陆海耦合协调发展程度进行定量评价,结果表明：2007－2021年,胶州湾地区陆海两系统综合得分均呈上升趋势,至2015年,海域系统综合得分赶超陆域系统成为陆海耦合协调发展的主要力量;区域陆海耦合协调发展等级从“勉强协调发展类”过渡到“良好协调发展类”,由“陆域主导型”过渡到“海域主导型”;统筹陆海资源环境承载力和发展潜力有助于陆海复合系统耦合协调发展能力的提升。同时,运用系统动力学建立陆海复合系统仿真模型,模拟陆海统筹背景下胶州湾陆海系统中各变量的发展态势。以上研究结果可为海岸带地区探索陆海统筹背景下可持续发展新途径提供参考与借鉴。

Assessment on land-sea coupling coordination development for the Jiaozhou Bay area under the background of land-sea coordination

The coastal zone is the core area of land-sea coordinated development, it is very important to evaluate the land-sea coupling coordination degree for the coastal zone in order to promote the implementation of the land-sea coordination strategy. This paper quantitatively evaluates the degree of land-sea coupling coordination development of the Jiaozhou Bay area by constructing an evaluation index system for the land-sea coupling coordination.The results show that: from 2007 to 2021, the comprehensive score of Jiaozhou Bay''s land and sea subsystem showed an overall upward trend. By 2015, the comprehensive development capacity of the sea area exceeded the land area and became the main force for land and marine development. The coordination level of land-sea development in Jiaozhou Bay has transitioned from "barely-coordinated development" to "well-coordinated development", and from "land-dominated" to "sea-dominated". Coordination of resource and environment carrying capacity and the development potential enhance the improvement of the development capacity of the complex land-sea system. At the same time, a System Dynamics(SD) simulation model of land-sea system was established to simulate the development trend of the variables under the background of land-sea coordination. The above study results provide a reference for the coastal zone to explore a new approach to achieve regional sustainable development under the background of land-sea coordination.