基于DEMATEL-AHP模型的海岛绿色发展指数影响因子识别与评价

海岛绿色发展是保护海洋生态环境、建设海洋强国的重要途径和必然要求。本文提出海岛绿色发展指数（IGDI）概念,从能源消耗与资源利用、环境管理与治理、环境质量与安全、经济增长质量、绿色生活水平、公众满意度等6个方面选取22个指标构建海岛绿色发展指数评价指标体系,运用DEMATEL与AHP相结合的方法,对海岛绿色发展关键影响因子进行识别,并以12个海岛县（市、区）（以下简称“海岛县”）为例进行评价与分析。结果显示：（1）经济聚集程度（2.15）、单位GDP能耗（2.01）指标影响度大于2,环境污染治理投资占GDP比重、碳排放强度、生态损害和环境污染情况、岛陆开发程度、第三产业增加值比重、生活垃圾处理率等指标影响度均大于1,反映出环境管理与治理、能源消耗与资源利用、经济增长质量是决定海岛绿色发展成效的关键。（2）12个海岛县的海岛绿色发展指数评价值均值为74.37,其中嵊泗县的评价值最高（88.24）,崇明区的评价值最低（65.57）,反映出我国海岛绿色发展程度整体不高,海岛之间的绿色发展程度差异较大。（3）推动海岛绿色发展需坚持以人民为中心的发展思想,强化基于绿色发展理念的海岛综合管理,推动海岛产业绿色转型升级,实施海岛生态整治修复,提升海岛生态系统碳汇能力。

Identification of influencing factors and evaluation of island green development index based on DEMATEL－AHP model

Green development of island is an important way and inevitable requirement for protecting the marine ecological environment and building China into a maritime power. This paper puts forward the concept of island green development index(IGDI), selects 22 indexes from 6 aspects, including energy consumption and resource utilization, environmental management and governance, environmental quality and safety, economic growth quality, green living standards, and public satisfaction, the evaluation index system of IGDI is constructed, the method of combining DEMATEL and AHP is used, the key influencing factors are identified, and 12 island counties (cities and districts) (hereinafter referred to as "island counties") are taken as examples to conduct a comprehensive evaluation and analysis. The results show that: (1) The influence degree of "the economic agglomeration degree" (2.15) and "energy consumption per unit of GDP" (2.01) is more than 2, and the influence degree of the proportion of investment in environmental pollution control to GDP, carbon emission intensity, ecological damage and environmental pollution, the degree of island land development,the proportion of added value of the tertiary industry, the disposal rate of domestic waste and all the other indicators are more than 1, reflecting environmental management and governance, energy consumption and resource utilization, and the quality of economic growth are the keys to determining the effectiveness of green development of islands. (2)The average evaluation value of IGDI of 12 Island counties is 74.37, with the highest value in Shengsi County (88.24) and the lowest value in Chongming District (65.57). It reflects that the overall level of green development of our country''s islands is not high, and there are significant differences between islands. (3)To promote the green development of islands, is necessary to adhere to the people-centered development philosophy, strengthen the comprehensive management of islands based on the concept of green development, promote the green transformation and upgrading of island industries, implement ecological improvement and restoration of the island, and enhance the carbon sink capacity of island ecosystems.