故障率理论在地震预报中的应用

本文把可靠性理论中故障率的概念引用于地震预报,建立了一族新的可靠函数w1(t)=exp[-taecsin(lnt+)].新可靠函数具有如下功能:1.其参数 a 可作为判别各地震活动期(大释放期、剩余释放期及积累期)的数值判据:当a1时为大释放期.2.其故障率函数能较好地描述各活动期内地震活动的起伏变化,并能进一步判断其地震活动的高低.3.当 c=0时,新可靠函数退化为怀布尔(Weibull,W)可靠函数,即后者是前者的一个特殊情形.用新的可靠函数对唐山7.8级地震、新丰江6.1级地震、滇东地震带及东南沿海地震带作了分析,效果较好.

AN APPLICATION OF THE THEORY OF FAILURE RATE TO EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION

The concept of failure rate in the theory of reliability has been introduced to the study of earthquake prediction, and an attempt has been made to draw a set of new reliability function w1(t)=exp[-taecsin(lnt+)]It is found that:1. The parameter a may take as a numerical criterion to judge the three stages of seismic activity, i.e. a 1 for the principal energy release stage.2. The failure rate function can represent adequately the fluctuation of the seismic activity in each of the stages mentioned-above and can be used to judge the activity level in each stage.3. When c = 0, the new reliability function will be degenerated into the Weibull reliability function, that is, the latter is a special case of the former.A test has been made by applying the new reliability function to the Tangshan Earthquake (Ms =7.8), the Xinfengjiang Earthquake (Ms= 6.1), and to the seismicity of the seismic zones of Eastern Yunnan and of SB China coastal region with satisfactory results.