COVID-19疫情对北京市节日休闲区域人口热力影响研究

COVID-19疫情对于休闲业造成重大影响。论文基于移动定位数据,利用核密度空间分析法、非参数检验方法,定量解析COVID-19疫情对北京市三环路以内休闲区域在清明节和劳动节人口热力影响。研究指出： ① COVID-19疫情对于北京市节日休闲区域人群热力影响显著,研究选取的3类休闲区域人群热力在2020年清明节、“五一”劳动节分别较2019年同期下降54.2%、53.0%。其中：风景名胜、购物服务、酒店住宿人群热力在清明节分别下降53.6%、57.5%、52.9%,在劳动节分别下降48.5%、52.0%、55.6%。② 风景名胜细分行业中不同类型区域人群热力受影响程度存在差异。3类细分行业区域清明节、劳动节降幅大体呈：寺庙教堂(41.7%、50.3%)<公园广场(53.1%、47.1%)<景区景点(61.1%、51.2%)。Wilcoxon秩和检验表明,寺庙教堂人群热力逐小时变化波动更小,总体呈现出观光游览<日常休闲<宗教信仰的行为需求差异。③ 北京市三环路以内休闲区域人群热力受COVID-19疫情影响程度与未受突发事件影响时休闲区域人群热力、休闲区域面积分别呈显著负、正相关性,其原因可归结为休闲人群风险感知与疫情防控的空间环境因素。研究可为评估COVID-19疫情对于中国大城市休闲业态影响提供科学依据。

Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on population heat map in leisure areas in Beijing on holidays

The Chinese government has curbed the outbreak of COVID-19 through a population flow control rarely seen in history. The COVID-19 pandemic has greatly impacted the recreation industry. Using mobile location data, this study quantitatively analyzed the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on population heat map in the leisure areas within the Third Ring Road of Beijing City on the Qingming Festival and Labor Day. The results showed that: 1) The COVID-19 pandemic significantly impacted population heat map in leisure areas in Beijing on holidays, and the population heat map values of the three types of leisure areas investigated in this study declined by 54.2% and 53.0% on the Qingming Festival and Labor Day in 2020 as compared to the 2019 values, respectively. To be specific, the population heat map values of famous scenery, shopping services, and hotel accommodation decreased by 53.6%, 57.5%, and 52.9% on the Qingming Festival, and by 48.5%, 52.0%, and 55.6% on Labor Day, respectively. 2) There were differences in the degree of the impact on population heat map in different types of areas in famous scenery. The impact on the three major segments of famous scenery can be ranked in ascending order as follows: temples and churches (41.7%, 50.3%), parks and squares (53.1%, 47.1%), and scenic spots (61.1%, 51.2%). Wilcoxon rank sum test showed that the hourly variation of population heat map in temples and churches was smaller, and the overall demand can be ranked in ascending order as follows: sightseeing, daily leisure, and religious activities. 3) The 2020 population heat map of the leisure areas within the Third Ring Road of Beijing City was significantly negatively and positively correlated with the population heat map before the pandemic and area of these leisure areas, respectively. This can be attributed to the risk perception of the leisure crowds and the spatial and environmental factors of the disease prevention and control measures. This study provides a scientific basis for assessing the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on leisure forms in big cities of China.