中国城市物流蔓延的时空演化特征——基于329个城市的物流用地面板数据

基于中国土地市场物流用地数据，构建用地蔓延指数模型，采用核密度、加权标准差椭圆等空间分析方法，从蔓延强度及方向等多维角度出发，获取2008—2017年中国城市物流蔓延的时空演化特征。研究发现：① 2008—2017年，中国城市物流蔓延强度最高为东北部，其次为东部、西部、中部，全国约67.48%的城市处于慢速蔓延状态。② 城市物流蔓延在全国范围内形成长三角、山东半岛和京津冀3个主要核密度高值区，物流用地冷点区主要分布在甘肃和云南等西部地区。③ 中国城市物流蔓延的空间分布重心轨迹经历了向东北?西南?东南方向的演化过程，一定程度上受国家战略和经济发展水平等因素的共同影响，应合理扩张物流用地，降低物流蔓延的负面影响。

Spatial-temporal Evolution Characteristics of Urban Logistics Spread Based on the Logistics Land Panel Data of 329 Cities in China

As the space carrier of logistics facilities,the study of urban logistics spread based on the data of logistics land use can identify the inherent law of urban logistics development as a whole,and provide a basis for urban planning and related strategies.Based on the data of logistics land on China Land Market Network,a land use spread index model is constructed,and spatial analysis methods such as kernel density and weighted standard deviation ellipse are used to obtain the temporal and spatial evolution characteristics of logistics spread in China from 2008 to 2017 from multiple perspectives such as the size and direction.The results show that:1)From 2008 to 2017,The highest level of urban logistics sprawl in China is in the northeast,followed by the East,West and central.About 67.48%of the cities in China are in a slow state of sprawl.2)Urban logistics spreads has formed three major high-value areas of nuclear density across the country:The Yangtze River Delta,Shandong Peninsula and Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region.The cold spot area of logistics land is mainly distributed in southwest areas such as Gansu and Yunnan.3)The trajectory of urban logistics spread center of gravity in China has experienced a movement law of northeast-southwest-southeast direction.To some extent,this is influenced by national strategy,economic level and other factors.Reasonable expansion of logistics land should be made to minimize the negative impact of logistics spread.