基于模糊物元模型的中国旅游生态安全评价及障碍因子诊断研究

基于DPSIR模型构建旅游生态安全评价指标体系,利用模糊物元模型对中国31个省(市、区)(不含港澳台)旅游生态安全进行动态评价,并运用空间自相关分析空间格局演化特征.同时借助障碍度模型,对旅游生态安全的障碍因子进行诊断.结果表明:①旅游生态安全呈现出波动增长的"W"型演化趋势.2013-2016年中国旅游生态安全在空间...

Evaluation of Tourism Ecological Security and Diagnosis of Obstacle Factors in China Based on Fuzzy Object Element Model

Based on the DPSIR model,a tourism ecological safety evaluation index system is constructed,and the dynamic evaluation of tourism ecological safety in 31 provinces(municipalities and districts)of China(excluding Hong Kong,Macao and Taiwan)is carried out using the fuzzy object element model,and the spatial autocorrelation is applied to analyze the evolutionary characteristics of the spatial pattern.At the same time,the obstacle factors of tourism ecological safety were diagnosed with the help of the obstacle degree model.The results show that:1)Tourism ecological safety shows a“W”-shaped evolutionary trend,generally in a good trend of fluctuation weakening and steady improvement.From 2013 to 2016,each province showed a spatial distribution pattern of“high in the east and low in the west”,with an overall gradient distribution pattern from coastal to inland.However,over time,the pattern of“high in the north,low in the south;high in the middle,low on both sides”has changed,with the overall Euclidean proximity of tourism ecological safety in each province increasing and the gap between regions narrowing.2)From a global perspective,the spatial distribution of tourism ecological safety in China from 2013 to 2017 is characterized by significant spatial clustering,but the spatial correlation of tourism ecological safety in each province has weakened and the degree of clustering has gradually decreased.In terms of local correlations,the spatial distribution of tourism ecological safety in China’s 31 provinces(municipalities and districts)is characterized by spatial agglomeration and inter-provincial spatial dependence.Most of the provinces show a strong local autocorrelation in tourism ecological safety,with a relatively stable overall pattern.A small number of provinces show negative correlation and significant spatial heterogeneity.3)There are significant differences in tourism ecological safety obstacle factors among provinces,with more obstacle factors having an obstacle degree higher than 10%.The main obstacle factors are tourism economic density,tourist density,smoke and dust emission,domestic waste disposal rate and sewage disposal rate.The tourism ecosystem is a complex and integrated system composed of natural,social and economic elements.Therefore,when vigorously developing tourism,the degree of economic development and the ability to enhance tourism ecological safety need to be fully considered;attention should also be paid to the coordination between tourism policies and environmental protection policies.