技术创新对黄河流域城市绿色发展的影响研究

创新是推动黄河流域高质量发展的重要途径之一。利用2006—2018年黄河流域79个地级以上城市的面板数据，首先构建指标体系对各城市技术创新及绿色发展水平进行分析，其次通过面板计量模型深入探究技术创新对城市绿色发展的作用机理。研究表明：① 2006—2018年，黄河流域城市技术创新与绿色发展水平均得到明显提升，但空间差异显著，总体呈“下游>中游>上游”阶梯式递减特征。② 黄河流域城市技术创新对绿色发展总体上没有显著影响，但在加入技术创新的二次项后，两者之间呈现显著的“U”型非线性关系，即技术创新先抑制后促进城市绿色发展，这也验证了技术的“回弹效应”假说；③ 技术创新对黄河流域城市绿色发展的影响可以通过直接效应和间接效应共同体现，但这两种效应正好相反，即一个城市技术创新能力的提升对该城市绿色发展存在显著的“U”型（先抑制后促进）关系，但对邻近城市的作用呈现倒“U”型相反的关系。根据研究结论，从技术创新对城市绿色发展的直接效应和间接效应2个方面提出了相应的政策建议。

The Impact of Technological Innovation on Urban Green Development in the Yellow River Basin

Innovation is one of the important ways to promote the high-quality development of the Yellow River Basin. Using the panel data of 79 cities above prefecture level in the Yellow River Basin from 2006 to 2018, this article first constructs an index system to analyze the level of technological innovation and green development of each city, and then deeply explores the mechanism of technological innovation on regional green development through panel econometric model. The results are as follows: 1) From 2006 to 2018, the level of urban technological innovation and green development in the Yellow River Basin has been greatly improved, but the spatial difference is significant, and the overall trend is “downstream > midstream > upstream”. 2) On the whole, technological innovation has no influence on urban green development in the Yellow River Basin, but after adding the quadratic term of technological innovation, there is a obvious positive “U-shaped” nonlinear relationship between them, which also shows the existence of “rebound effect”. 3) The impact of technological innovation on urban green development in the Yellow River basin can be reflected by both direct and indirect effects, but the two effects are just the opposite. That is to say, the promotion of a city’s technological innovation level has a significant “U-shaped” relationship with the urban green development, but it has an inverted “U-shaped” relationship with its neighboring cities. According to the research conclusions, this article puts forward the corresponding policy implications from the direct and indirect effects of urban technological innovation on green development. First of all, it is particularly important for the middle and upper reaches of the Yellow River basin to enhance the ability of technological innovation and strengthen the innovation-driven effect on urban green development; Then, cities in the Yellow River Basin should break the “beggar thy neighbor” phenomenon, so as to strengthen the coordinated development in the Yellow River Basin and give play to the positive spillover effect among cities.