秦巴山区村域稳定脱贫测度及返贫防控风险识别——以重庆市城口县为例

深度贫困地区农村实现稳定脱贫、建立返贫防控机制是后2020时代的现实要求,更是精准扶贫与乡村振兴承上启下的紧密衔接。以强度生态脆弱与集中连片特困复合地区重庆市城口县为研究区域,基于脱贫稳定性测度模型、障碍度模型和最小方差模型等方法对城口县60个行政村、1950个农户进行多维脱贫稳定性空间分异特征和返贫风险模式探究。研究发现：① 样本村脱贫稳定性等级分布总体呈现前端窄小、中部突出的“葫芦状”结构,各地区多维脱贫稳定性总体不高且存在空间异质性;② 城口县返贫风险可识别为双风险模式、三风险模式、四风险模式和五风险模式4种模式及各阻力因素多元整合主导的11种返贫风险类型,人力资本、发展机会等涉及农户可持续增收、动态抗风险能力及内生动力的要素逐渐成为现阶段返贫防控及减贫路径依赖的重点;③ 立足区域特征,把继续攻坚和稳定脱贫、防止返贫摆在同等重要位置上,因村施策提高群众抗风险能力,精准织密防止脱贫群体的返贫网。

Measurement of rural poverty alleviation sustainability and return-to-poverty risk identification in Qinling-Bashan Mountains:A case study of Chengkou County,Chongqing Municipality

Achieving sustainable poverty alleviation and establishing a prevention and control mechanism for return-to-poverty in extreme poverty rural areas is a realistic requirement in the post-2020 era. It is also a key link between precision poverty alleviation and rural revitalization. Taking Chengkou County of Chongqing Municipality—an area of strong ecological fragility and concentrated continuous poverty—as the research area, and based on the poverty alleviation sustainability measurement model, obstacle degree model, and minimum variance model, this study explored the spatial differentiation of multidimensional poverty alleviation sustainability and the return-to-poverty risk models for 60 villages and 1950 farming households in the area. The study found that: 1) The sample villages' poverty alleviation sustainability distribution generally showed a "gourd-like" structure where the front end is narrow and the middle part protrudes. The multidimensional poverty alleviation sustainability in the area is generally low and of different degrees. 2) The return-to-poverty risk in Chengkou County can be divided into four models and 11 types, dominated by diversified integration of various resistance factors. Human capital, development opportunities, and other factors related to sustainable income growth, dynamic anti-risk capability, and endogenous drives of farmers have gradually become the focus of poverty reduction and control of return-to-poverty at this stage. 3) Local governments should give equal priority to alleviating poverty, improving the sustainability of poverty alleviation, and preventing return-to-poverty. At the same time, improve people's ability to resist risks and develop a network for preventing return-to-poverty of vulnerable groups with specific policy in each village.