基于投入产出表的中国水资源消耗结构路径分析

为了解各部门在生产链中水资源的具体消耗路径和在消耗路径中所发挥的作用以及维持生产链中水资源消耗的关键部门,论文基于2017年投入产出表和相关气象数据,在农业用水中加入绿水资源消耗量,利用投入产出模型和结构路径分析(structural path analysis, SPA)法分析中国42个部门水资源消耗的总量和结构,以及水资源在生产链中消耗的具体路径。结果表明：① 城镇居民消费和进口的水足迹最高,其次为农村居民消费,大多数水足迹较高的部门,都是以居民消费为主,进口水资源弥补了国内部分生产用水的消耗,但水资源短缺的形势仍然严峻;② 生产链前5个层级的水足迹消耗占比为95%左右,其中部门内部消耗占比最大,水足迹随层级数的增加而下降,水资源反馈循环程度较弱;③ 从部门生产链看,部门内部的水足迹占比最大,部门流入和流出水足迹差值较大,部门之间普遍存在单向依赖特征,关联网络不够稳定;④ 从最终消费角度看,农业部门内部水足迹占比最大,是生产链中重要的衔接结点,多样化的消费需求增加上游部门的水资源压力。研究为调整节水政策和提升水资源配置与管理能力提供了一定的理论基础。

Structural path analysis of water resources consumption in China based on input-output table

In order to grasp the specific consumption path of water resources in the production chain and the role played by each department in the consumption path, as well as grasp the key departments that maintain water consumption in the production chain, this study used input-output models and structural path analysis to analyze the total amount and structure of water consumption in 42 sectors of China and the specific path of water consumption in the production chain based on the 2017 input-output table and related meteorological data, and adding green water consumption to agricultural water use. In this way, we can grasp the specific consumption path of water resources in the production chain and the role played by each department in the consumption path, as well as grasp the key departments that maintain water consumption in the production chain. The results show: 1) Urban residents consume and import are the sectors with the highest water footprint, followed by rural residents. Most sectors with higher water footprints are dominated by residential consumption. Imported water resources make up for the consumption of some domestic production water, but the situation of water shortage is still severe. 2) The water footprint consumption ratio of the first five levels of the production chain is about 95%, of which intra-sectoral consumption ratio is the largest. Water footprint decreases with the increase of the number of levels, and the degree of water resource cycling is weak. 3) With regard to the production chain of sectors, intra-sectoral water footprint accounts for the largest proportion, the difference between the water footprint of sectoral inflow and outflow is large, one-way dependence between sectors is common, and the association network is not stable. 4) From the perspective of final consumption, the internal water footprint of the agricultural sector has the largest proportion, and is an important connection point in the production chain. Diversified consumer demand increases the pressure on water resources in upstream sectors. The study provides a theoretical basis for adjusting water-saving policies and improving water resources allocation and management capabilities.