中国城市生活垃圾处理能力的时空格局及影响因素

基于2003—2017年中国30个省份的数据，探究城市生活垃圾处理能力的时空格局，并构建动态面板数据模型实证检验中国城市生活垃圾处理能力的影响因素。研究结果表明，考察期内城市生活垃圾处理能力存在空间发展不平衡问题；进一步利用Dagum基尼系数测算城市生活垃圾处理能力的空间差距并将其进行分解，其中，东部地区的地区内差距最大，地区间差距则以东部地区和西部地区之间最大，而超变密度则是空间差距的主要来源；此外，通过回归模型发现人均GDP、专利授权数、城镇化水平以及无害化处理厂数目的提升将促进城市生活垃圾处理能力的提高。

Spatial-Temporal Patterns and Influencing Factors of Municipal Solid Waste Disposal Capacity in China

In October 2017, the report of the Nineteenth National Congress of the People’s Republic of China proposed that China has entered a new era. In the course of China’s development into a new era, the economic level has increased significantly and the process of urbanization has continued to advance. But the contradiction between the urban living garbage and the environmental protection is more and more prominent, it is difficult to maintain a balance between economic development and the environment, the harmless treatment of urban domestic garbage has become an urgent problem. Based on the data of 30 provinces in China from 2003 to 2017, this paper explores the spatial-temporal patterns of municipal solid waste disposal capacity in the country and in various regions, and construct a dynamic panel data model to empirically test the influencing factors of China’s municipal solid waste disposal capacity. The research results show that the spatial development of the municipal solid waste disposal capacity is unbalanced, the municipal solid waste disposal capacity in the eastern region is higher than other regions, followed by the central region and the northeast region. The municipal solid waste disposal capacity in the western region is the lowest. The municipal solid waste disposal capacity in Northeast China was at a relatively high level in the early stage of the survey, only lagging behind in the eastern region, but just higher than in the western region in the later stage of the survey. The Dagum Gini coefficient was further used to measure and decompose the spatial gap of municipal solid waste disposal capacity, and the results showed that the spatial gap of municipal solid waste disposal capacity in China generally showed a trend of ‘decreasing fluctuations’. If 2003 is the base period, in 2017 the spatial gap in China’s municipal solid waste disposal capacity has fallen by 9.05%, Among them, the eastern region’s Gini coefficient has the smallest average annual change rate, and the spatial gap between the western region and the northeast region has slightly increased. The eastern region has the largest intraregional gap. The interregional gap is the largest between the eastern region and the western region. And the hyper-density density is the main source of spatial disparity in municipal solid waste disposal capacity; In addition, systematic GMM regression model was found that the improvement of GDP per capita, patent authorization number, urbanization level and the number of harmless treatment plants will promote the disposal of municipal solid waste.