南京城市低收入居民被迫搬迁后的就业变动及影响因素

依托南京市郊区近千户城市拆迁安置家庭入户调查数据，对城市低收入居民被迫搬迁后的就业变动过程及形成原因开展统计分析，利用生命历程理论构建就业变动纵贯数据库，使用事件史分析模型动态模拟了被迫搬迁后城市低收入居民的就业变动经历，探究其影响因素。研究发现：① 90%以上的城市低收入居民被迫搬迁后经历了就业变动，就业变动集中发生在搬迁后的前4 a，研究期内人均变动1.5次；被迫搬迁后的就业变动类型多样、原因复杂，呈现明显的阶段差异，并非所有的就业变动都和被迫搬迁有关。② 性别、年龄、学历等个体社会经济属性，以及搬迁前后的职住空间关系对就业是否发生变动具有显著影响，搬迁时年龄越大、学历越低、女性、搬迁前职住距离较小、搬迁后职住距离较大以及前一年在中心城区工作受访者，就业发生变动的概率越大。③ 家庭搬迁年份较晚，社区周边就业机会增多以及新的地铁线开通，对个体就业变动发生呈现明显诱导作用，即就业岗位及其可达性对就业变动发生具有显著性影响。④ 前一年的职业类型对就业是否发生变动具有显著影响，具体表现为自营职业者比工作单位员工更不可能经历工作变化，意味着自营职业者的就业状态相对稳定；此外，家庭入住年数对受访者就业变动产生了显著影响，即随着时间推移，个体就业发生变动概率在降低，安置居民的就业状态趋向稳定。

Urban Low-income Residents'Employment Changes and Dynamics after Displacement in Nanjing,China

Based on a household survey data of nearly one thousand displaced households in the suburbs of Nanjing, this paper studies their employment changes, and the timing and reasons for their changes, using an event history model. The results show that: 1) More than 90% of low-income urban residents have experienced employment changes after displacement, and the employment changes were concentrated in the first four years after their forced move, with 1.5 changes per capita during the study period. The changes in employment is the result of a combination of factors, which varies across employment changes. 2) Individual socio-economic attributes such as gender, age, education, and commute before and after displacement have significant effects on employment change. Respondents who were older at the time of move, lower in education, female, had a shorter commute before displacement, had a longer commute after displacement, and had worked in a city center the previous year had a greater probability of employment change. 3) Factors such as the late family movement year, more employment opportunities in the community, and the opening of new subway lines have clearly induced individual employment changes. In other words, the availability and accessibility of jobs has a significant impact on employment change. 4) Occupation in the previous year has a significant impact on whether employment changes. Self-employed persons are less likely to experience job changes than staffers, and the former have relatively stable employment. In addition, the number of years the family has stayed on the individual employment has a significant impact. The longer residents stay, the lower the probability of employment change. In other words, the employment status of forced movers tends to become more stable over time.