中国人口收缩的城乡分异特征及形成机理

在县市尺度上对2000—2010年人口收缩区的城乡分异特征进行分析，划分出城增乡减型、城乡双收缩型和城减乡增型等类型，并建立人口收缩城乡分异的理论分析框架，探讨了不同类型的形成机理，主要的发现如下：① 2000—2010年，人口收缩单元占比约为38.6%，城增乡减型单元占据绝对主体，达到34.5%，而“城乡双收缩型”和“城减乡增型”单元占比均较低。② 中部地区人口收缩区城镇人口增长普遍较快，东北地区城乡双收缩的特征较为突出，而东部和西部地区存在较明显的空间分异。③ 城镇化水平和经济发展水平对人口收缩城乡分异特征的影响最为显著，城镇化水平较高而经济发展水平较低的人口收缩区越可能出现城镇人口增长缓慢甚至城乡双收缩。④ 经济发展速度、人口自然增长水平、公共服务等因素对人口收缩城乡分异特征也存在一定的影响。

The Differences of Urban-rural Population Change and the Underlying Mech-anism in the Populaaation Shrinking Counties in China

In recent years, the continuous decline of the total population at the regional scale has become increasingly obvious. Considering that most regions have still been experiencing the rapid urbanization processes, it is necessary to analyze the differences of urban and rural population changes and its underlying driving forces in the population shrinking areas. Based on the population census data in 2000 and 2010, this article has analyzed the difference characteristics of urban-rural population change in the population shrinking counties by identifying several urban-rural differentiation types, and then we have established a theoretical framework to investigate the underlying drivers. The main findings are as follows: 1) 38.6% of the research samples have experienced population shrinkage in the period from 2000 to 2010, but most of them have been characterized by “urban population increasing and rural population declining” (or “urban growth and rural decline” for short), and these units account for 89.5% of all the shrinking samples, and the proportion of urban-rural population both shrinking type (or “urban and rural both decline” for short) has a relatively low percentage. 2) In the central region, the type of “urban growth and rural decline A”, which means a high urban growth rate, occupies the main part, and Northeast China has a high percentage of the type of “urban and rural both decline”, and there are obvious spatial differentiations in the eastern and western China. 3) The factors of urbanization level and economic development level have the most significant impacts on the differentiation of urban-rural population change among the population shrinking areas: the population shrinking areas with higher urbanization level and lower economic development level will be more likely to experience slow urban population growth and even urban population decline. 4) The growth rate of economic development, the level of natural population growth, and the quality of public services also have certain impacts on the differentiation of urban-rural population change among the population shrinking areas. Based on these findings, we argue that the perspective of urban-rural differentiation can deepen understanding of population shrinkage in China, and it can also contribute to the relevant theories of population shrinkage in a developing context.