确定性模型在黄土沟壑区斜坡稳定性预测中的应用

SHALSTAB耦合了稳态水文假定模型和无限斜坡稳定性模型，主要用于评价浅层滑坡稳定性的时空分布和发展趋势。选择黄土高原甘肃陇东地区华池县作为研究区，评价SHALSTAB模型在黄土沟壑区浅层滑动稳定性分析中的适用性和可靠性，利用1:5 000地形图获得了数字高程模型和地形坡度，以及室内和现场试验的物理力学参数，结合现场钻探和探槽得到的土层厚度分布和地表稳定性指数等级分布图。现场测量绘制的滑坡分布图与模拟结果对比和统计分析表明，SHALSTAB模拟的总体正确率为70.23%，滑坡预测正确率为72.33%，稳定状态预测正确率为67.51%，模拟效果良好。

Application of deterministic model to analyzing stability of hillslope of loess gully area

SHALTAB combines steady state hydrology assumptions and the infinite slope stability model to evaluate the distribution and the trend of shallow landslide. Taking Huachi county of Longdong in Gansu Loess Plateau region as study area, the availability and reliability of SHALSTAB for slope stability analysis of the loess gully area are evaluated. The degree distribution map of stability index is obtained by the digital elevation model constructed from 1:5 000 scale contour map, the slope of the terrain from DEM, physico-mechanical parameters of loess provided by field investigation and laboratory tests, and soil thickness data got from materials of boreholes and exploration trenches. By comparing the distribution of landslide from field surveys with model predictions, it is shown that the overall accuracy is 70.23%; landslide prediction accuracy is 72.33%; stability prediction accuracy is 67.51%. The simulation results are rational.