| 中尺度暴雨模式MRM1对华南暴雨预报试验 |
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| 引用本文： | 姜勇强,张维桓,周祖刚,郑刚. 中尺度暴雨模式MRM1对华南暴雨预报试验[J]. 气象科学, 2004, 24(1): 62-71 |
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| 作者姓名： | 姜勇强 张维桓 周祖刚 郑刚 |
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| 作者单位： | 解放军理工大学气象学院,南京,211101;沈阳军区空军司令部气象处,沈阳,110015 |
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| 基金项目： | 空军“中尺度暴雨 η模式的研制及业务化试验”课题资助项目 (编号 :990 99) |
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| 摘 要： | 利用中尺度暴雨模式MRM1对2001年6、7月华南的暴雨进行数值预报试验．初始场采用T106谱模式的预报场作初估场，海表温度采用1982～2001年的候平均海温。试验结果表明：模式对两个月的1、10、25、50、100mm降水平均TS值分别达到0．629、0．358、0．238、0.160、0．063．两个月中的主要降水过程预报效果较好．特别是7月几次台风暴雨过程。
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| 关 键 词： | 中尺度暴雨模式 华南暴雨 数值试验 |
| 修稿时间： | 2002-06-28 |
FORECAST EXPERIMENTATION OF RAINSTORM OVER SOUTH-CHINA USING MESOSCALE RAINSTORM MODEL MRM1 |
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| Jiang Yongqiang Zhang Weihuan Zhou Zugang Zheng Gang. FORECAST EXPERIMENTATION OF RAINSTORM OVER SOUTH-CHINA USING MESOSCALE RAINSTORM MODEL MRM1[J]. Journal of the Meteorological Sciences, 2004, 24(1): 62-71 |
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| Authors: | Jiang Yongqiang Zhang Weihuan Zhou Zugang Zheng Gang |
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| Affiliation: | Jiang Yongqiang 1 Zhang Weihuan 1 Zhou Zugang 1 Zheng Gang 2 |
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| Abstract: | Numerical experimentation is done by using MRM1 (Mesoscale Rainstorm Model)for heavy rain over South China on June and July,2001.Initial field is analyzed by using forecast field of T106 as first guess field,the pentad average sea surface temperature (SST) from 1982 to 2001 is used as model SST.The results of experimentation show that the average threat score (TS) of 1,10,25,50,100 mm of precipitation test within these two months is 0.629,0.358,0.238,0.160,0.063,and they are larger than most of the models at home and abroadThe main precipitation process is preferably forecasted on two months,and many typhoon rainstorm processes on July are especially well forecasted. |
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| Keywords: | Mesoscale rainstorm model South China rainstorm Numerical experimentation |
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