Groundwater recharge in the Victoria Nile basin of east Africa: support for the soil moisture balance approach using stable isotope tracers and flow modelling

Across equatorial Africa, increasing demand for groundwater has raised concerns about resource sustainability and has highlighted the need for reliable estimates of groundwater recharge. Recharge investigations in this environment are typically inhibited by a shortage of good quality meteorological and hydrogeological records. Moreover, when recharge studies are attempted they tend to rely on a single technique and frequently lack corroborating evidence to substantiate recharge predictions. In recent studies undertaken in the Aroca catchment of the Victoria Nile basin in central Uganda, the timing and magnitude of recharge determined by a soil moisture balance approach are supported by stable isotope data and groundwater flow modelling. The soil moisture balance study reveals that recharge averages in the order of 200 mm year⁻¹ and is more dependent on the number of heavy (more than 10 turn day⁻¹) rainfall events than the total annual volume of rainfall. Stable isotope data suggest independently that recharge occurs during the heaviest rains of the monsoons, and further establish that recharge stems entirely from the direct infiltration of rainfall, an assumption implicit in the soil moisture balance approach. Deforestation over the last 30 years is shown to have more than doubled the recharge estimate. Aquifer flow modelling supports the recharge estimates but demonstrates that the vast majority (over 99%) of recharging waters must be transmitted by the aquifer in the regolith rather the underlying bedrock fractures which have traditionally been developed for rural water supplies.