Using the DPFT approach to improve flash flood forecasting models

DPFT is a lumped approach for operational flash flood forecasting, based on the unit hydrograph. Using a multi-event alternating iterative algorithm, it identifies a robust and stable average transfer function and a consistent set of effective rainfall series associated with each event at the same time. This key ingredient allows an objective calibration of different loss functions, relating gauged precipitation and effective rainfall. A case study based on an operational French basin (545 km²) is presented. Three lumped production functions have been calibrated and compared. The results show that more elaborate models of loss functions must be proposed, and some possible directions for this are pointed out.